(CNN) – US President Joe Biden spent the weekend spending an increasingly pessimistic final push to prevent a Russian invasion of Ukraine, an intrusion that could have dire consequences for his own political position.
If President Vladimir Putin transforms his tanks into Russia’s smallest democratic neighbor, it will send shock waves around the world and trigger one of the worst and most dangerous national security crises since the Cold War.
While not a groundbreaking contribution to the genre, Putin’s reputation as a dictator has had a significant impact on the reputation of the United States. Symbol of voter anger and perceptions of the economy.
Jake Sullivan, the president’s national security adviser, summed up a weekend on Sunday in which the tone of Western governments’ warnings of a possible invasion was so alarming that weeks of Russian troops around Ukraine could reach a turning point.
“The way they built their forces, the way they maneuvered things, creates a unique possibility that very soon there will be a major military operation,” Sullivan told Jack Tapper in the State of the Union. From CNN.
Imagining a horrific situation of massive conflict in Europe, Sullivan warned that an invasion would begin with prolonged missile and bombardment, which could cause significant civilian casualties.
“If Russia moves forward, we will defend NATO territory, we will impose costs on Russia, and we will ensure that the West exits stronger, firmer, and more resolutely than it has in 30 years. In the end, Russia will bear a cost.” Military action is strategically important, “said Sullivan Topper.
Adding to the thought that this could be an unfortunate week, Pentagon spokesman John Kirby told Fox on Sunday that there was good intelligence in the United States that pointed to “a great opportunity for Mr Putin.”
The United States will not send troops to defend Ukraine. The former Soviet Union was not a member of NATO, the coalition that defended the Western world after World War II. Therefore, a direct confrontation between Russian and American soldiers is unlikely. However, Biden ordered several thousand troops for NATO countries – including the two countries behind the Iron Curtain, including Romania and Poland, which are now part of the alliance – much to Putin’s anger.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine will undermine democratic principles, the idea that the people can choose their own leaders, and the policies that the United States has built up over decades of foreign policy. In a conflict that will drag the US into a bigger war than an invasion of Ukraine, it will encourage China to take action against Taiwan’s democratic island, which it considers a Chinese territory.
But even more immediately, a Russian invasion could cause significant domestic setbacks within the United States, which could impose further economic pain and ultimately affect the chances of Biden and his Democrats in the November election.
On Sunday, the president assured Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zhelensky that the United States would impose measures to punish Russia “quickly and decisively.” This response will change US foreign policy and add another crisis to Biden’s pile.
For the first time in 30 years, the United States and Russia, the two largest nuclear powers, will be locked in a direct confrontation. Tensions will escalate further if the United States returns to the business of shooting down Russians. Congress has called for a US-sponsored uprising in Ukraine in response to the Washington-led uprising that helped oust Moscow from Afghanistan in the 1980s and accelerated the collapse of the Soviet Union. Russia will respond to such propaganda and has the potential to disrupt US targets and diplomacy around the world, including key issues such as the nuclear challenges posed by Iran and North Korea, which will soon pose a direct threat to the security of American citizens.
The Russian invasion of Ukraine could raise oil prices and cause direct pain to US drivers. According to the American Automobile Association, high gas prices, currently averaging $ 3.48, are a factor in Pyton’s declining popularity. Thursday’s key data Inflation rose to 7.5%, the worst since 1982, and the president can not bear the crisis, which has the potential to push them even further.
Russia’s invasion could cause stocks to fall in ways that could affect voters ‘perceptions of economic security and prosperity, further undermining Democrats’ confidence and avoiding possible electoral losses to the House of Representatives and the Senate. If the Russian invasion of Ukraine appears to have violated world control over which he and the United States transcend, there is a psychological and political setback that Biden could already face with disgruntled voters.
Republicans have already tried to portray Python as weak, and strong US efforts to oust Putin – including the imposition of the most painful sanctions ever imposed by Washington and the West on Moscow – have failed the Russian leader. Former President Donald Trump has put forward an argument that would have been known if the invasion had taken place. In an interview with Fox on Saturday, Biden said Putin was motivated to oppose the United States because of the chaotic expulsion of Afghanistan from the group.
“When they saw it all, I think they were brave,” Trump said. The former president said he would have prevented Putin from taking such a position: “I know him well, I get along well with him. We respected each other.” Trump said no administration has ever been tougher on Russia than the administration he led. Despite his administration’s strong policy towards Moscow – including sending arms to Ukraine – Trump often seemed to follow his personal approach, in which he spoke to Putin and took the Russian leader’s view on key issues. In the 2016 US presidential election.
The second Trump presidency will raise real questions about NATO’s future, and will again play into Putin’s goal of splitting or destroying the coalition. The New York Times, for example, reported in 2019 that Trump had spoken privately about leaving the organization, which would be a major victory for Russia. Any move in Ukraine to injure Pita could help Trump and his wait-and-see campaign, a factor that could diversify the calculations of a Russian leader who has already intervened in the US elections aimed at helping the 45th president.
Biden’s presidency is already in trouble
Over the weekend, Trump’s comments were clearly intended as a signal to Republicans about how to pursue Pita in the event of a Russian invasion. The GOP has spent months focusing on the message that the world has lost respect for the United States with the departure of Biden’s weak and incompetent and strong Trump.
Biden issued a direct warning to Putin in a phone call on Saturday about US actions – including sanctions that could cripple the Russian economy if an invasion takes place. But because of his frequent contacts with the Russian leader, Putin could face charges of appeasing him if he ignored US warnings and marched on Ukraine anyway.
Republican leaders want to emphasize higher gas and commodity prices, often caused by epidemics, should portray Biden’s economic administration as a disaster despite decades of strong employment numbers. The multi-layered events resulting from the Russian invasion of Ukraine could play in their favor.
Biden’s presidency is already shaking. His approval rating dropped to 41% in a new CNN / SSRS poll released last week, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine will deepen the sense of crisis that has already rocked the White House. History has shown that the most troubled presidents have suffered painful defeats in the by-elections during their first term. A CNN poll conducted in January and February found that only 45% of Democrats and pro-democracy voters wanted Biden to run for re-election in 2024, and 51% wanted another candidate. However, there is no good news for Trump, with 50% of Republican and pro-Republican voters calling for him to be re-run by the GOP and 49% wanting an alternative candidate.
Despite some rhetorical errors, Biden is unlikely to garner much praise from voters as a successful, multifaceted attempt to unite US allies in NATO and create a punitive effect on Moscow if it invades Ukraine.
Any decision by Putin to stop on the brink of invasion and withdraw his forces would allow him to argue before the midterm elections that the strength and political prowess of the US president had pushed Russia back. But the Russian leader is unlikely to ease pressure on Ukraine and plan to remain a constant headache for the United States and Biden, even if he does not launch a full-scale invasion.
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