(CNN Business) –– The U.S. economy added 199,000 jobs in December Department of Work. This is the lowest number of jobs not included in any month in 2021.
This figure is also disappointing: economists have predicted a doubling of jobs.
So how come America’s job forecasts are sometimes wrong again?
Sarah House, an economist at Wells Fargo, said: “We have to admit that this is an extraordinary time.
Many of the models used by economists are not designed to capture labor shortages, for example, he told CNN Business.
Also, at the beginning of the week, the ADP employment report Created over 800,000 jobs In the private sector for December, it raises hopes for a strong end to this year. Although the two are not related to each other, that publication is considered specific to the official employment report.
However, low revenue sends a clear message. Recovery is not yet possible.
Summary of America’s Year and Jobs
The unemployment rate has dropped to 3.9%, indicating the lowest level of a new epidemic period. At the same time, the labor force participation rate has been 61.9% since November. It still represents 1.5 percentage points below February 2020.
Unemployment rates for white, Asian and Hispanic workers fell in December, while unemployment for black workers rose.
By February 2020, there were still 3.6 million fewer jobs in the country at the end of the year, compared to the pre-epidemic period.
Still, 2021 will go down in history as a record year for job growth. America added 6.4 million jobs last year Much since the records began in 1939. Each month he added jobs.
“We have made significant progress in overcoming the job shortage … Looking at the overall state of the labor market, it’s interesting,” said House, an economist at Wells Barco.
In a way, the labor shortage that paralyzes businesses is also a relatively good problem, he said: “Contrary to what we saw two years after the Great Recession.”
Undoubtedly, 2020 was also the year of labor progress. But considering the severe losses incurred at the onset of the epidemic, the economy recorded a net loss of jobs that year.
Omigron on the horizon
Economists are worried that the start of 2022 will be tough for the job market. Increasing Infections Due to Omigran Variation of Corona Virus Affects both workers and companies.
But with opinion polls based on the jobs report taking place in the middle of the month, the December report does not yet reflect Omigran’s impact. It will be different in January.
“I think Omigron will definitely be a big headwind for January, but I think there will be seasonal tailwinds: January. [tradicionalmente] It’s been a huge month for layoffs, but we will not see many layoffs this year as companies struggle to get workers, ”House said.
Winners and losers in December
The leisure and hospitality sector led to growth with a modest 53,000 jobs. But the sector still has 1.2 million jobs below pre-epidemic levels.
Professional and business services, manufacturing, construction and transportation and warehousing also added jobs last month.
Meanwhile, the retail business, which usually adds multiple jobs during the holidays, recorded a seasonal adjustment decline. This is because, although the sector employs more workers, the seasonal adjustment is based on the historically high returns seen at this time of year.
These trends reflect how much consumer behavior has changed online during epidemics, with an increase in warehouse and logistics work. Online shopping will not be broken at any time as Omigron poses a risk.
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