December 4, 2021

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If China captures the islands near Taiwan and the war game ends, the United States has some good chances

(CNN) – If China captures one of Taiwan’s border islands, there will be some good chance for the United States to respond without major expansion and the risk of war, according to the latest war game findings or policy experts’ simulation.

Stage, an outline Report to a new U.S. Defense Center, China has used military force to bring under its control a small coral reef in the South China Sea between Taiwan and Hong Kong, in which about 500 Taiwanese troops are stationed.

This type of limited occupation may have preceded the takeover of other islands near Taiwan or may have preceded the total invasion of the democratically governed island.

But once China establishes its own military base in Dongsha and withdraws Taiwanese troops, the report says there is no credible way for the United States to force China into Taipei control. The embargo took a long time to take effect and seemed too weak to influence China’s decision-making, while any military action risked escalating the war, which the United States and Taiwan want to avoid as much as possible.

Instead, the report underscores the need for a multilateral approach, with the United States, Taiwan, Japan and other countries trying to prevent the island from being captured in the first place.

China is escalating tensions with Taiwan over its warplanes 2:38

“The United States and Taiwan must begin to unite today to create a reliable barrier against limited Chinese occupation or coercion in Taiwan,” the authors wrote. In all cases, cooperation with Japan is essential to establish effective prevention.

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Tensions have risen between China and Taiwan

Military pressure on the island of Beijing has increased in recent weeks, and Taiwan’s defense minister made a grim prediction earlier this month: By 2025, China could launch a “full-scale” invasion of Taiwan. The war game is centered on the invasion of Tongsha in 2025.

Last week, President Joe Biden announced that the United States would come to its defense if Taiwan was attacked by China, sparking comments against the US’s declared policy of “strategic ambiguity”.

When asked twice during a CNN forum whether the United States would protect Taiwan during China’s attack, Biden said.

“Yes, we are committed to doing so,” he said.

After the forum, a White House official sought to clarify Biden’s views on Taiwan, saying in his comments on China and Taiwan that the president had “not announced any change in our policy, no change in our policy.”

The United States supplies Taiwan with defensive weapons, but it is deliberately unclear whether it will intervene militarily during China’s offensive. Within the framework of the “One China” policy, the United States recognizes China’s claim to sovereignty over Taiwan.

But this issue is an important point for the administration, and China’s plans for Taiwan are one of the “important topics” for the CIA’s new China Mission Center, with the newly formed organization focusing only on collecting and monitoring. Director David Cohen said at an intelligence conference this week.

China can use military force to control Taiwan 1:57

An invasion of China is not yet planned

Those familiar with the estimates say intelligence officials have yet to find anything to suggest that China is preparing for a military invasion.

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Speaking at a conference on the Sea Island of Georgia, Cohen said the agency’s researchers were “trying to understand exactly how”. [el presidente de China] Xi Jinping, the primary decision-maker in the matter, thinks of Taiwan as “both”. [20º Congreso del Partido Comunista Chino]”In 2022″ compared to the comparative strength of the Chinese military and the US military.

The goal is to provide policymakers with “indicators” of a possible invasion – decision-making factors in China – so that US policymakers can determine the best course of action.

“There is a first issue with China,” Cohen said. “Taiwan is definitely one of the primary issues we are focusing on with China.”

Speaking at The Cipher Brief Conference, former intelligence officials suggested that a sudden military takeover of Taiwan was not possible, but suggested that China follow the model used by Russia in annexing Crimea in 2014: taking the policy slowly and covertly, followed by more transparent military movements to ensure reality on the ground.

When he decides to go to Taiwan to coordinate those actions with the Russians, which complicates the US problem in dealing with many crises, there is no doubt that Ji has decided that it is in his best interest, ”Mark said. Gelton, former deputy director of the CIA.

Taiwan will be a test

Norm Rule, Iran’s former director of national intelligence, said: “Taiwan will be a test.” Our resolution on Taiwan and China should be called into question. People should say, ‘If you do not defend Afghanistan, will you do the same with other countries?’

China has expressed a broad desire to test that commitment. In recent weeks, Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) has sent a large number of military aircraft, including fighter jets and early warning aircraft. The attacks did not cross Taiwan’s airspace, which is 12 nautical miles off the coast. However, they signaled a clear message about Beijing’s intentions.

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“By daily entering the airspace around Taiwan, Xi is clearly signaling and testing the resolution of the West,” Mark Geldon, the former deputy director of CIA counter-intelligence, told the conference.

Taiwan approaches US and condemns China 1:01

On Tuesday, Secretary of State Anthony Blinken called for Taiwan’s “meaningful participation” in the United Nations, praising the island as a “democratic success story”. Although Taiwan can participate less as a full member state, any move such as recognizing Taipei would anger Beijing, which has made it clear that it considers Taiwan a part of China.

“The fact that Taiwan has been a strong participant in some UN specialized agencies for the past 50 years is a testament to the value that the international community places on Taiwan’s contributions. However, Taiwan has not been allowed to contribute recently. To UN efforts,” it said in a statement.

China’s fierce opposition has excluded Taiwan from international organizations such as the World Health Organization (WHO). The United States has pursued a policy of strategic ambiguity with regard to Taiwan, refusing to recognize the island’s independence, but recognizing Chinese sovereignty over Taiwan.

“Excluding Taiwan undermines the important work of the UN and its agencies, all of which greatly benefit from its contributions,” Blingen said.